As dual enrollment participation grows—reaching an estimated 2.8 million students in 2023-24—practitioners and policymakers require validated, timely student success metrics to support the improvement of dual enrollment programming as an effective on-ramp to college and career.
This report introduces and validates a set of dual enrollment momentum metrics designed to serve as leading indicators of subsequent postsecondary success. Drawing on longitudinal data from four states, analysis in the report tests three types of metrics capturing college coursetaking in high school: credit accumulation (e.g., 6+ or 15+ credits completed), completion of college math or English, and completion of a college credential in high school.
By assessing how these metrics predict the post–high school outcomes of college enrollment, college completion, and time-to-degree, the report provides evidence for practitioners and policymakers who seek to adopt similar metrics to support efforts to evaluate and improve DE programming. The authors find that dual enrollment momentum metrics are strong predictors of postsecondary outcomes, though the strength varies depending on the metric and outcome: Lower credit thresholds and gateway English completion are stronger predictors of college enrollment, whereas higher credit thresholds and gateway math completion are stronger predictors of college completion and reduced time to a bachelor’s degree. And the findings suggest the dual momentum metrics are reliable predictors of subsequent college outcomes across student gender and race/ethnicity, Title I high school status, and high school urbanicity.
Based on the results in the report, college, K-12, and state or system leaders can prioritize a subset of the metrics examined that best reflect the coursetaking patterns of their students and the specific goals of their dual enrollment programs, be that expanding access to college, increasing likelihood of completion, reducing time to degree, or all of the above.