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Early Momentum Metrics: Leading Indicators for Community College Improvement

By Clive Belfield, Davis Jenkins & John Fink

As community colleges across the country implement large-scale reforms to improve student success, they need timely and actionable metrics to determine if the changes they are making in a given year or term will likely improve student outcomes in the long run. In this brief, the authors examine how well nine measures of students’ progress in their first year predict student completion in subsequent years, and thus how suitable these early momentum metrics are as leading indicators of the effectiveness of institutional reforms.

Based on analysis of student data from all community colleges in three states, the authors find that early momentum metrics do predict longer term success for students. They also find that a key factor in low completion rates, as well as in equity gaps in completion rates, is that many students do not gain early momentum in their first year. College outcomes would be substantially higher if more students met early momentum metrics. These findings indicate the need for comprehensive reforms to community college organization and practice to help more students gain early momentum on their way to earning a credential.

Download brief
July 2019
  • Next Frontier Guided Pathways Research: Studying the Effects of Pathways Reforms

Related Publications

August 2022

Stratified Trajectories: Charting Equity Gaps in Program Pathways Among Community College Students

June 2021

How Ohio Community Colleges Are Using Guided Pathways to Personalize Student Support

April 2020

Should Colleges Invest in Machine Learning? Comparing the Predictive Powers of Early Momentum Metrics and Machine Learning for Community College Credential Completion

Additional Resources

For more policy briefs and fact sheets, visit CCRC’s Policy Resources page.

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