Are Labor Market Opportunities Diverting Potential Community College Students? Lessons From Los Angeles County

By Brian Johnson, Elise Swanson, and Rachel Tropp

Nationwide, the COVID-19 pandemic pushed preexisting declines in community college enrollment into overdrive, leaving enrollment levels far below what they once were.

This is a cause for concern. Community colleges aren’t just institutions—they’re lifelines for countless individuals striving for career-oriented credentials and family-supporting wages. As enrollment dwindles, so too do the opportunities for aspiring students. In states such as California that base higher education funding on enrollment, declining headcounts can likewise be consequential for institutions.

So, what is driving this recent decline in enrollment besides the initial shocks of the pandemic? Many economic factors have been posited, from improving job opportunities, to a decreasing payoff from getting a degree, to a shrinking working-age population. To gain clarity, we took a deep dive into the labor market in Los Angeles County to explore these trends on a local level. Here’s what we found.

Earnings Rose for Young People and Those Without College Degrees—And So Did Opportunity Costs

It’s clear from enrollment trends in Los Angeles that the steepest declines were among younger, full-time students. Most of the for-credit enrollment at community college campuses in Los Angeles County is made up of students younger than 25, so any shift toward the workforce among this age range could have consequential implications for student headcounts.

Our analysis shows that earnings rose for young people and those without bachelor’s degrees in the years immediately following the start of the pandemic. Compared to 2019 levels, this group was earning 8–10% more income monthly.

The decline in enrollment from this population makes sense when considering the opportunity cost of education—when potential earnings from working rise, the decision to invest time in school becomes a costlier one. Higher earnings may have incentivized more students to prioritize employment over education.

Labor Force Participation Rates Rose, Too—Perhaps Taking Time Away From Learning

It’s not just earnings that have risen. Data confirms that more students are working or seeking work. The labor force participation rate (LFPR) increased both for young workers (those 24 and under) and those of any age with some college education, which includes those who attended college and left without a credential, those who got a short-term credential, and those who earned an associate degree.

Traditionally, many individuals in this group return to school to complete a degree, to seek a new or higher credential, or to switch career fields, but the LFPRs for these groups tell us that these would-be students may now instead be devoting their time to work, whether due to new opportunities for higher earnings, financial necessity, or other motives (the LFPR numbers alone don’t tell us why). With finite time each day, joining the labor force might have come at the cost of time available for educational pursuits.

Population Changes Mean There Are Fewer Working-Age People Without College Degrees

The bulk of for-credit community college enrollment comes from the working-age population (ages 16–64), those most likely to be deciding between employment and enrollment.

Looking at the population of Los Angeles County, the working-age population below 25 has declined, as has the older population (25–64) without a bachelor’s degree. Since younger people and those without a bachelor’s degree represent those most likely to enroll in community college, this loss of population might limit the potential enrollment pool.

Labor Market Conditions Have Likely Played a Role—But Not All Trends Point the Same Way

Overall, our exploration of Los Angeles County data suggests that several factors likely contributed to changing enrollment rates. In particular, improving labor market conditions may have altered incentives for the populations most likely to enroll in community college: younger people and those with less than a four-year degree.

Not all labor conditions supported the overall trend, however. Unemployment rates did not change meaningfully or even increased slightly—it is unclear, then, that the ease of getting a job diverted potential community college students into the labor market. And the economic returns of a degree remain high, as evidenced by the earnings gap between workers with and without a degree, indicating that students would not have a reason to eschew further education under the assumption that it would not pay off financially.

But these economic and demographic shifts are just one piece of the puzzle. Changes in earnings, labor force participation, and population presented here provide a start to understanding pandemic-era enrollment declines. By continuing to examine the range of factors shaping enrollment, institutional and system leaders will be able to engage potential enrollees more effectively and support them in reaching their goals.

Brian Johnson is a senior research analyst, Elise Swanson is the associate director of research, and Rachel Tropp is a communications specialist at the Center for Education Policy Research at Harvard University.

The Leveraging Technology and Engaging Students (LTES) team comprises Chris Avery, Jon Fullerton, Maury Pearl, Deborah Harrington, Elise Swanson, Rachel Worsham, Soumya Mishra, Brian Johnson, Victoria Varlack, and Anthony Bald. We are also grateful to Tatiana Melguizo, a founding co-PI of the project who shaped the direction of this work and tragically passed away in 2024. All errors are those of the authors.

The LTES project is fully funded by the Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education, through Grant R305X220018 to the President and Fellows of Harvard College. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not represent views of the Institute or the U.S. Department of Education.